Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
